The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will give the global financial order stability. That is the official order. However, these days the IMF economists sometimes give the impression that she wanted to add fuel to the fire. A few days before the vote of the British on the whereabouts of the country in the European Union published the organization a dramatic report, the voters should deter most, to vote against the discharge. When not sheared to the arguments of the IMF and voted for the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union, made the horror scenario of economists for additional uncertainty.
Now, the IMF proves in Italy a very special timing. Situated in the largest banking crisis in years, the IMF experts publish an assessment of the country. And containing an explosive force, which could lead to shocks throughout Europe. Because of the testimony that the IMF the government issues to Matteo Renzi, stating that Italy currently represents the greatest risk to Europe. The expert analysis leads to the conclusion that the banking crisis may actually be solved only by a fraction of the recently launched European banking directive. Worse, Italy will be there probably dependent on the assistance of the European partners because of their own economic weakness. At least, the IMF expects that the fourth largest economy in Europe will have returned to pre-crisis 2007 levels only in 2025. ‘/ P>
“Italy will be two have lost decades behind him, in which the partners of the Euro-zone will be grown 20-25 percent, “the IMF authors write Rishi Goyal. “The growth is too low to solve the problems in the financial sector. At the same shaky balance sheets will be a source of constant uncertainty.” And not only the company balance sheets pose the Monetary Fund to immense risks. The high national debt of 135 percent of economic output makes the country vulnerable to shocks, noting the IMF experts.
In particular, the banking sector is the systemic risk Europe. At least 360 billion euros, the problem loans of UniCredit, Monte dei Paschi & amp sum; Co. On average 18 percent of the total loan portfolio are non-performing, only in Greek houses, the rate is even higher. The experts agree that the institutions must be urgently recapitalised.
But there the problem begins. The new Brussels banking directive allows such assistance only if first the private owners and creditors of banks have emerged for eight percent of commitments. This is to prevent that always only taxpayers’ money for the rescue of banks is expended. But many private savers have converted their money on the current account because of low interest rates in bank bonds. 38 percent of bank bonds are held by small savers. In strict application of the rules would have to be bled, making the IMF clearly in his analysis. These private customers would lose at least 31 billion euros of savings. That is not politically feasible, konstantieren stability guardians. “Must be with this problem handled carefully,” write the IMF analysts.
Even Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who previously insisted on a strict application of the Banking Directive has revealed earlier this week on this point yielding. We must find a way, as the small investors can be spared, he said on the sidelines of the meeting of finance ministers of the euro zone.
The reluctance has good reasons , Already, the EU pessimism in Italy is strong. In the latest polls, the anti-establishment movement is a 5 star level with the ruling party of Matteo Renzi. According to a survey by Ipsos is no nation wants Europe so much a vote on membership of the EU as the Italians. Almost half would thereby vote for an exit. “The banking crisis is just the tip of the iceberg. The political problems are just as serious for the continent,” said Alastair Newton, strategist at political analysis House Alavan.
How serious are the problems, and remarks of the French Finance Minister Michel Sapin made clear. You’ll find a pan-European and solidary solution with Italy. His words are not altruistic. French banks are the most entrenched in Italy with more than 250 billion euros.
Italy’s so dangerous for Europe because it is one of the largest economies, viewed not as easy as Greece can carry around. The boot state is among the EU countries with the highest debt but the slightest inclination work. The employment rate of Italian women between 25 and 54 is just two-thirds. In this country, more than 80 percent of women at least part-time employees.
At the same time the economy is not competitive. This is especially apparent that at the global export statistics. Italy’s share of global trade has declined steadily in recent years. One reason is the low level of investment, which led to a stagnation in productivity. Another reason is the euro. So the Italians were against joining the euro economically viable only thanks to their soft currency and could sell their cars or machines in the world markets. In fact, the Italian currency lost against the Deutsche Mark between 1971 and the Euro-start more than 80 percent. Since the introduction of the euro is no longer possible. But Italy has mentally not yet been adopted by the old habits and must atone with anemic growth and high debt.
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