Ifo index “a shot across the bow of the German economy” – Handelsblatt
cranes in Berlin
The Ifo Institute has presented its latest economic barometer on Thursday.
(Photo: AP)
Berlin the mood among German managers has worsened after the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union-shock the second consecutive month. The appropriate barometer of business confidence fell significantly in August by 2.1 points to 106.2, as the Munich-based Ifo Institute announced on Thursday to its survey of 7,000 executives. This is the lowest value in six months. Reuters poll of economists, however, had expected an increase of the important leading indicator to 108.5 meters. “The German economy falls into a summer lull,” said Ifo President Clemens Fuest.
Experts attribute the unexpected drop back to the anti-EU decision by the British from the end of June. “The Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union has now affected a little stronger,” said Ifo expert Klaus Wohlrabe to Reuters. “The Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union-shock is the company but beaten on the stomach,” agreed economist Alexander Krueger at Bankhaus Lampe.
What economists say the Ifo index
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“the Ifo index, which last month relatively unaffected by the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union-vote in itself in June showed unexpectedly fell to the lowest level since December,, 2014. Especially in the wholesale and retail trade has Ifo Institute, the business climate deteriorated. Given the high levels of growth doubt are not installed, an increase in economic momentum but be stated any more. “
“You have to go back to the sovereign debt crisis in the spring of 2012 to find a decline in the Ifo index of more than two points. The obvious reason for gloomy expectations is probably the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union and the associated uncertainty. First is the mood in the silly season, but a further decline in September would be a clear indication of slower growth in the second half. “
” the environment of global uncertainty also go to the German company does not pass without a trace. Notably especially that the surveyed corporate leaders evaluate both the current situation and the future outlook pessimistic. When looking at the details reveals that only in construction no deterioration can be observed -. A shot across the bow of the previously well-running German economy “
“the headwinds of Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union-vote from June to the end bursting with energy economy now brakes slightly. The mood in Germany Company tarnishes the first time since the bumpy start to the year appreciably. Apparently the good momentum can only partially cushion in private consumption and in construction damper on corporate investment and foreign trade at present. We are nevertheless confident that the German economy remains on a growth path and expect a GDP growth of 1.8 percent in 2016. “.
“11″
“the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union-shock is the company but beaten on the stomach. Unlike the significant deterioration in the Ifo business climate can not be explained. All in all is the mood still good, overlooking the purely behavioral growing global economy, it is our opinion, even better than the production reality. “
in July the Ifo index had fallen after the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union recommendation. The British had decided in late June that their country should leave the European Union. Experts fear that Britain could thus slip into recession. The German exporters have to reckon with loss of business, the country is still one of its most important customers.
The coup attempt in Turkey has According Wohlrabe contrast barely affected the mood in the boardrooms. Likewise, the attacks have not charged the consumer mood in Germany. The stockbrokers the Ifo decline caused uncertainty: The Dax extended its losses and was last 1.2 percent in the red
The company heads assessed both the business outlook for the next six months and the current situation. bad. The mood became cloudy in wholesale and retail and in industry. “Especially the intake declined” Fuest said, referring to the manufacturing sector. “The business climate was in virtually all industries to, most notably in the chemical and electrical industries.” For service providers, the climate brightened indulge in the construction industry remained at a record level.
development of the Ifo business climate index
August 2015 to August 2016
NordLB economist Bernd Staple explained that “the environment of global uncertainty” at our German companies “not immune” pass by. “It is worth noting in particular that the surveyed corporate leaders evaluate both the current situation and the future outlook more pessimistic.” Only in the construction sector, there was no deterioration. This was “. A shot across the bow of the previously well-running German economy”
Holger Sandte, economist at Nordea Bank, warned: “First is just the mood in the silly season, but a further decline in September would clear indication of slower growth in the second half. “
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