Italian banks are no model student for years. Lazy loans estimated value of 360 billion euros they have amassed. Now they’re waiting with nervous tension on the outcome of the EU stress tests. In the evening there’s evidence, albeit without notes.
The timing is made for Italy: Friday night, 22 : 00. The next day is in August. Monday is the first, and happened in August in this country nothing. And it should not be done after the publication of the certificates, or as little as possible. Because it would be a huge surprise when Italian banks would get good grades. However, when the evaluation should be a surprise negative, it is desirable that no reactions are possible, which act on one another in the manner of a chain reaction and reinforce each other explosively. No reactions that might develop in the direction of panic. A “fall-through” in the strict sense is this time not possible.
No critical requirements
After all, unlike in 2014, when had been requested before the stress test that a bank must have a minimum equity ratio of 5.5 percent, no figures are given time, no limits that could be torn. Nevertheless: The effort to dampen the nervousness was evident in the recent times. Approximately two weeks ago, as Prime Minister Renzi announced that negotiations between Brussels and Rome for approval of state banks help came on well.
trying Government to calm
Almost simultaneously said Economy and Finance Padoan, the euro zone finance ministers, and then the whole EU would not talk about Italy and its banking crisis. It prevailed also no concern with colleagues. Rather, they are curious about what is happening in Italy, both economically and politically.
This is doubly reassuring, though a bit contradictory. Because in a sound banking system protect savings would not be very necessary. What at Italian banks really solid, stable and permanent, this is the crisis. One might as coming to speak to the 30s of the last century. But conclusions were drawn also from the global turmoil in 2007/2008 and the following years hardly.
No lessons from the crisis
There was no downsizing in banking, not sufficiently determined efforts to get rid of bad loans, no other consolidation measures. And under high debt and low profits, many Italian banks had also suffered already.
The good news of the President, it analyzed the Milan economics professor Donato Masciandaro, was that there was no bad news. He noted that there had been in recent weeks some shocks, economic as well as the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union, political as the attempted coup in Turkey. This would have the economy as a whole can bring in hardships. Draghi has reminded that there is a recovery in the economy. Although it is not just sturdy, but the recovery going on, so the economist.
danger? Oh what!
And the most problematic bank, “Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena”, the professor of the Economic University of Bocconi in Rai television was questioned. Whether this past Friday constituted in July for the traditional bank a threat? “No” was his answer. There is neither the “Monte dei Paschi di Siena” still generally a risk – assuming the failure of 2014 would be avoided
Incorrect conclusions of the ECB
“Since the ECB and the European banking Authority have caused quite a mess. Since the stress tests were considered as judgments about individual banks, not generally as a thermometer for the banking sector. there were press conferences in Frankfurt and Rome, where completely contradictory things have been said. ” That was rather been a farce. This time’m hoping says Masciandaro that the publication of the stress test results for each bank have the right effect – namely, no
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