Following the agreement in the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program, the people celebrated in Tehran and other cities across the country on the road. They were pleased not only about the agreement itself, but probably mainly on the implications: the imminent end to the economic sanctions that had been in recent years the Iranian economy to the brink of collapse.
Also in German boardrooms the joy of the deal was great: The German economy is electrified at the prospect of again do business with customers in the Muslim country to. The German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), the largest advocacy of companies in this country, estimates that German exports to Iran could double to around five billion euros in the next two years.
The Federation of German Industries (BDI) considers it even possible that German companies to sell in a few years, goods for more than ten billion euros to the country could.
The course for wants the policy provide as soon as possible: Federal Minister Sigmar Gabriel flies already in the Iran to speak in Tehran and Isfahan with senior government officials and business representatives. This is a strong signal; after all, the SPD politician is the first high-ranking Western politician who enter the country only a few days after the nuclear deal.
Especially for business contacts it Go Gabriel, says from his ministry, and accordingly it takes a small but high-level group of company and association representatives with.
The strong symbolism defiance: that the German economy will build on its successful periods in Iran, is unlikely. Once, in the 70s, the oil state of Iran was the second largest trading partner outside of Europe for the local companies to the United States.
competition from China and Korea have been skipped
Since then, although much has changed, wealth is in the world is distributed differently today, companies have globalized their production and trade flows to other routes, but nevertheless Germany was before the start of the sanctions most important trading partner for the Iranians.
this state is reached, the German economy is not back, because experts agree. Because during the years of sanctions have competitors from China and Korea occupied the gaps that emerged when German companies stayed away from the country. Also Japanese companies have made despite the sanctions Shopping on site, prior to which German companies have shied away.
“for the German economy is likely to be difficult to get back to be the largest trading partner of Iran, because Chinese companies the past few years, where were the sanctions , have used to establish themselves in Iran, “said Anton Börner, head of the foreign trade association BGA. “These Chinese companies are even now, when the sanctions cease to fight for their position.”
actually make especially Chinese companies – also with the support of their own state – now excellent business in Iran: build motorway junctions and bridges and provide the same to the car. The Korean brands Hyundai and Kia are not an integral part of the streetscape in Tehran.
“Chinese and Korean companies have now taken our place in the sun in Iran,” says Volker Treier, the foreign trade head of the DIHK, the self-ago had a few days in Iran. “The Chinese have now in business with Iran a trade volume of 50 billion dollars. At this scale we will not approach.”
Nevertheless, should the starting point for German company to be excellent in Iran. Relations between companies from both countries have grown over decades, partly German companies involved for more than 100 years, in the heartland of the former Persian Empire. The infrastructure that was created in this long-standing relationship, is intact to this day.
The first contact is difficult
The DIHK one spot after such company before 80 that in Iran a branch or production facilities. Although some of these production facilities are decommissioned, they still are just waiting to be reactivated. In addition, there is still in Iran in 1000 representatives of German companies that are already bringing back for future transactions in position.
“The Iranian economy is geared more towards industry, as one would assume commonly,” says Volker Treier. “With 80 million inhabitants and a strong industrial base, the country is predestined as an export market for German companies – but also for China and South Korea.”
For example, there is in Iran a large auto industry, which has partially produced 1.5 million vehicles in cooperation with the French manufacturers during peak periods. Today expected in the Iranian car factories, which produce on their own, some local brands, less than one million cars per year roll off the line.
Just the need for modernization of these and other industries makes German machinery and plant manufacturers take notice. For them the need of modernization industry in the country is expected to offer dazzling opportunities for businesses – as well as the oil-promotion and processing that needs to be brought up to date.
However, the first contact with the old customers should initially be difficult for many companies. Direct to build on the relationship before the sanctions should often be hardly possible without tact and persuasiveness.
“It’s always dangerous when a competitor has established itself in a market and has a customer helped in a difficult situation,” said Foreign Trade Minister Börner , “Many German companies will have to listen now, that they now want to do business, in recent years, but have not let overlook.” However, local companies could score with reliability and quality.
Subliminal Power Politics
Furthermore, increases in German managers who after the end of the sanctions for the customer Advertise in Iran for new contracts, set on a leap of faith: “German companies benefit from the fact that Germany is a popular figure in Iran and a partner you there too familiar in the long term,” says Boerner.
“Customers know that German companies want to do business and Germany no power and geopolitical ambitions developed. Plays for companies from the USA or from China power politics, however subliminally always a role. “
Börner is because even assuming that Germany is the medium back among the three main trading partners of Iran. DIHK expert Treier shares this view: “The biggest European trade partner, we can be in any case and will certainly advance the top three the projection of Chinese, we can not catch up as fast, but with the Koreans, we can safely soon compete..”
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