The Greece Rescue seems procedures than ever before. If one believes Ifo chief meaning, but the misery is not an accident but deliberately planned by the Greeks. So Tsipras wants erstreiten the best possible conditions for the Grexit – and apparently get away with it
Athens wants no quick agreement, but has been operating on a plan B.. At least that Hans Werner Sinn, head of the Munich-based economic research institute Ifo. In a recent paper he assumed Athens a sort of role-play.
Thus is Premier Alexis Tsipras as Mr. Clean for Plan A, to remain in the euro, while its finance minister Yannis Varoufakis as a kind of “Bad Cop” parallel plan B prepared: the Grexit. Meaning is sure: “The RPG part of the strategy.” Even more: By deliberately working towards Grexit Varoufakis should try to get the most for his country. That he succeeds loud sense over two steps.
Tsipras can target the emotions run high
On the one hand let Athens escalate the conflict specifically to make boil the emotions with its own people. “Without the escalation of the dispute, the Greek people would not be willing to keep faith during the difficult time after leaving the government,” writes sense.
On the other hand trying to Athens, the cost of the donors as far as possible to drive up. The drug of choice: capital controls – or just their non-implementation. “The government could curb capital flight, if they would show conciliatory, and they could with capital controls immediately stop,” writes the Economist. “But that would impair their Drohpunkt.”
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Then the money is abroad – and the donors remain on receivables sit
This is made possible the repeatedly extended credit facility of ELA bailouts. The more money deduct the Greek depositors from their accounts and move abroad, the greater the capital hole in the banks. The turn must obtain from other European central banks as part of the target system new loans
The result:. The Target claims of other central banks as regards Greece to rise, Athens owes theoretically Euros. Leaving Athens, the euro zone, the other banks sit on their demands, while the Greeks have hoarded their money safe abroad – in euro
In January and February the Greek target debt had risen to nearly one billion per day. writes sense, until they located the end of April at 99 billion euros. The Economist recognized: “No wonder Varoufakis and Tsipras are playing for time, refusing to present a genuine reform list.”
Athens could access to 142 billion euros
If the European Central Bank As announced soon stem the ELA helps move could come in the negotiations. Then Greece could get involved in a compromise, predicts economist -. In much better conditions than would have been previously possible
But the Grexit would Athens be easier in the situation, writes sense, after all it could to recourse € 99 billion abroad and euro cash in the amount of 43 billion euros – along at least 79 percent of GDP by 2014. sense Conclusion:
“As a say Varoufakis do not understand politics.” In the video, : Grexit as an opportunity? This enables investors to benefit from a Greek-exit!
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