D ie Greek crisis escalates: From 11 February, the European Central Bank will no longer accept Greek government bonds as collateral. This means that Greek banks get the normal route out of money by the ECB. The only thing that still holds the Greeks from there alive, is an emergency relief program called ELA (Emergency Liquidity Assistance). It supplies Greece initially continue with money, albeit at slightly higher interest rates. The Governing Council, this was intended as a temporary solution program but stopped at any time.
The consequences of such stops would be devastating. Because Greece would not come to fresh euro, the country would probably reintroduce its own currency. “If the Greek government refused reforms, a withdrawal from the EU and the euro would not be excluded,” says Jürgen Matthes from the Institute of the German economy to the star . The Economist has played the “Grexit” together with Mr Thomas Schuster in a recent study. “An exit from the euro would probably hurt much more than Greece Europe,” says Matthes.
What would be chaos in Greece?
“For many Greeks there would be a rude awakening, “predicts economist Matthes. If the Greek exit from the euro, it would come to a bank run. In recent months, the Greeks have raised large sums of money from their savings accounts. If the Grexit, savers would probably empty evacuate immediately all ATMs. Greek banks would collapse.
“A new currency can not be introduced overnight,” says Matthes. “The supply of liquidity would temporarily collapse. People could not withdraw more money, companies would not get loans.” The new currency would be also significantly depreciated against the euro to repay the debt in Euros, would be even more difficult.
Is Europe under?
The multi-billion dollar bailout fund Greece has originally get not only out of charity. Rather feared was a chain reaction that could tear the entire euro zone into the abyss. Meanwhile, the many experts see relaxed. “The risk of contagion is currently relatively low. This can be seen also that the sovereign debt crisis in other states have not risen significantly despite the irritation to Greece.” That means: Although the Greeks question is more open than ever, the markets other problem children as Spain trust their money
pay the bill
Do Germany
The worst case.? Here’s how: Greece declares its debt is not repaid, and the German guarantees will be due. To fill the hole in the box office, the federal government gets the money then through higher taxes among their own people back. But economist Matthes does not believe that a Grexit has a direct impact on the German taxpayer. “If Greece does not pay his debts, Germany does not necessarily need to pay the bill.”
Then is the time for financial trickster. It is conceivable, for example, that the bailout loans simply replacing the old with the new. “Thus, although a kind of shadow budget would be created, but the guarantees from the euro countries would not overdue,” says Matthes. In other words, Germany must not pay immediately, one would procrastinate the problem, instead, and hope you find a solution in the future
a Grexit harm our economy
Here comes the good news. Greece is not particularly relevant as an economic factor. “If no significant spillover effects on other countries develop, the effects are manageable,” says Matthes. “Greece is not a major trading partner and the economic outlook for Germany and the euro zone have recently brightened again.”
it comes to the stock market crash?
In short-term shocks react exchanges immediately. The question is whether the shock triggers a panic or whether adverse effects to cushion a fall. As the rest of the euro crisis states currently passable develop and the money is loose at the ECB, a downward spiral could be avoided. “For lack of contagion, the chances are good that there is no sustained fall in the stock markets,” says Matthes.
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