Jacob Kirkegaard research not in Brussels, Athens and Berlin, his work is far from the current poker in the euro zone. But the currency expert at the prestigious Washington Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that distance. Who looks from afar to Europe, some excitement can not understand.
The situation is still pretty clear, says the Dane. “There is a game of chicken between Athens and the euro zone . ” If you blink first, loses. But the Greek side was hopelessly outnumbered. “Their situation would probably be even worse if she left the euro zone. At the same time, such a step would not be consequential enough to shake the rest of the euro zone, ie the Greek blackmail potential drops,” says Kirkegaard.In fact, seems decided before the special meeting of euro zone finance ministers this Wednesday and the meeting of Heads of State and Government in Brussels the day after one thing: your radi cal campaign promises the new Greek government can not implement. So no haircut and probably no new spending billions.
of it made Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble as early as Monday’s little doubt when he said about the plans of the new Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras: “I did not yet understand how the Greek government wants to lift it.” On Tuesday, he does add: You’ve never Greece imposed the current utility Schäuble said. If Greece does not want the money from it assume is the “no problem at all. But then it’s over.” In this case, there would be no new package.
No one wants to bring down Greece
Also, EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker sent a warning to Athens “Greece must not assume that the overall sentiment in Europe had changed so that the euro zone would take over the government’s program of Tsipras without compromise – or even could.”
At the same time it is also clear that neither Brussels nor the Member States want to bring down Greece. The concern over its banking system and a possible insolvency of the country are widely used in the Commission and the capitals. If SYRIZA implement its expensive campaign promises and should sag tax revenue continues, it could already be ready in March. Then that is a billion dollar loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be charged. Therefore
Many observers hope for a compromise. According to a report circulating agency plans, Greece should receive half a year to reach an agreement with creditors. In the six months to be talked about all the questions and the time after the previous tool. German Finance Minister Schaeuble dismissed the Tuesday immediately returned. The report “must be false,” the minister said. He knew nothing about it.
In Athens is hope but apparently not. There Rumour has kind of ten-point reform plan for Greece. The most important Prestige success in the new government: The troika of the EU Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund, it should no longer be in shape. This could also President Juncker live, who had called for in the European elections, the troika had medium to be replaced by a “structure with stronger democratic legitimacy and accountability.”
On one point everyone agrees
But how reforms Athens would require? In particular, decisive steps against tax evasion and corruption could convince the EU donors. “This is the point at which all agree and would really score with the SYRIZA in Brussels and the Euro Group,” said a Commission official. More than seven billion euros – –
If the members of the euro group along with the plan, the final installment of aid to Greece could be paid
This corresponds to the requirement of Tsipras that is currently in a government statement. has bridge financing required to June. However, the step also meant a move away from the promise of the new Greek government to do everything differently. Because measures such as a higher retirement age, and privatization and labor market reforms would probably be in the new reform treaty.
The SYRIZA government announced on Tuesday that it wants to stop two more large economic projects, such as the sale of the old Athens airport Hellenikon. Athens has already been called off a series of privatizations, including the sale of the port of Piraeus.
At this point Tsipras would have to lay down a policy U-turn. But therein lies a great opportunity for Europe, says expert Kirkegaard: “When it is clear by his giving in that even act radical movements such as SYRIZA within the rules of the euro area, it is the political legitimacy of the zone tremendous upswing.”
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