Hamburg – Already in the first two sentences of its more than 120-page study bring the experts of the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) the misery to the point: “After the financial crisis of 2008 and the longest and deepest recession since the Second World War it was expected that the world’s economies would reduce their debt. It did not happen. ”
Whether households, enterprises and governments, whether in Europe, Asia or America whether in developed or developing countries – the world sinks into debt. Only in exceptional cases shows the trend in the right direction.
As the development is rapidly lost in recent years, is the sum of all the debts of the world clearly: in 2000, they added up to 87 trillion, 2007, they were already $ 142 trillion – up to second quarter of 2014 now $ 199 trillion up too fast. In 2007 was the debt still 269 percent of annual economic output, the ratio has now risen to 286 percent. Thus, the international experts from the research branch of McKinsey in their report, which SPIEGEL ONLINE exclusive.
The special feature of this study: they considered not only the debt of the state, but also the businesses and private households. It is this overall view allows namely a realistic look at the situation in a country. Low national debt of little use if households or businesses are close to financial collapse. And vice versa, a country can cope with high public debt if citizens save diligently and invest their money undaunted in bonds of their homeland
Germany lies slightly below the global average -. And intersects with it compared to other industrialized countries performed well. Above all, the euro partners Netherlands and Ireland has given exorbitant debt ratios debt crisis. Japan debt is already almost proverbial. The other hand, it is surprising the extremely high debt ratio Denmark.
Although there are still enough for fifth place in the ranking, is UK Amazing in recent years succeeded. The United Kingdom was able to reduce its debt by 507 to 435 percent of economic output. In Ireland on the other hand, the country that has overcome the consequences of the financial crisis relatively well according to popular belief, the rate of 663 rose to 680 percent. This means that. The Irish would have to work for almost seven years without a cent to spend, remove only their debts
Do not ever be debt growth but worrying who face McKinsey experts. As represented almost half of the new debt on the Emerging markets and there especially on companies that the capital used for investments – a mostly healthy development:
In the industrialized countries However, the national debt have significantly tightened – while the private sector have reduced debt since the 2009 peak of the crisis. Specifically, the debt ratio of households and businesses fell slightly to an average of 156 percent of economic output. The national debt soared, however, from an average of 69 up to 104 percent. This applies in particular in four states, which have been hard hit by the financial and mortgage crisis – Spain, Ireland, Great Britain and the United States.
Of particular concern is the expert of McKinsey development in China . In the second largest economy in the world, the debt in the past seven years has quadrupled. Meanwhile, the debt ratio is above the many established industrial nations:
Not only its explosive growth, but also the structure of Chinese debt are troubling, according to McKinsey: half of the inventory debts go back to the real estate sector, new debt would be to made half in unregulated shadow banks, and especially the debt policy of many regional governments is not sustainable, the experts write.
For now spend the banks in the UK, the US and Ireland far less reason for concern. The particularly hard hit financial sector in these countries have now significantly reduced debt, also the most harmful excesses shadow banking sector are now circumcised.
In the future The McKinsey experts take a look, more precisely in the 2019. The fall more from worrying. With three exceptions, the debt ratio is likely to increase in all states. Only in Germany, Ireland and just Greece currently still has the second highest public debt ratio in the world, where:
In order to prevent this, but severe cuts in the budgets would sometimes necessary: However,
One of the lessons from the Euro crisis continues to apply: A austerity does not help much if economic growth fails to weak. There will probably be too low for a reduction of public debt in most states even before 2019:
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