The start of independence is likely to be bumpy. If the Scots vote in the referendum on 18 September for the elimination of the UK, threatened some turbulent months.
The uncertainty surrounding future currency will cause the pound devalues and falling stock prices Scottish companies. Bank customers would bring their assets to safety, investors pull their capital from Scotland. The island had its own version of the Euro-crisis
is equally clear, however:. Scotland can economically survive alone. Even the British Prime Minister David Cameron admits: “Of course Scotland could be a successful independent country.”
The Scottish economy is different in many Root hardly by the British. Growth and productivity are similarly high, services account for almost three quarters of total economic output. The Scottish population is well educated, the universities are among the best in the world
Scotland’s economy -. Most important industries
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The new government would, however, faces a significant structural problem. You would be overly dependent on two sectors: oil and finance.
oil industry generates 13 percent of economic output. This makes Scotland very vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices on the world market. In addition, the oil production has been declining since 1999, the Scottish nationalists hope for new oil discoveries, but the fact remains that the commodity is finite. Another 30 years estimate experts are gushing the North Sea sources. The government should therefore already planning for the post-oil era.
DPA
industrial port of Aberdeen: Oil industry generates 13 percent of GDP
financial sector shrinks by itself
No less problematic is the second pillar, the oversized financial sector . The total assets of the Scottish banks is twelve times as large as the Scottish economy performance. Without a powerful central bank in the back of a mismatch is such intolerable. Each medium-sized bank failure could result in national bankruptcy by yourself.
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branch of the Royal Bank of Scotland: Second leg
The financial sector, however, would quickly shrink by itself: Five Scottish banks have already announced plans to relocate in the event of independence their headquarters to London. There they continue would enjoy the protection of the Bank of England. Since 90 percent of customers in England sit, this development would be inevitable. But Scotland could make legitimate hope to retain many of the back-office jobs. A total of 190,000 jobs depend directly and indirectly in the industry.
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production at Johnnie Walker in Glasgow: Scotch Whisky Bestseller
But are banks and oil not all, the Scottish economy has much more to offer. The food industry is thriving, their exports are even higher than the oil exports of 4.7 billion pounds per year. Scotch whiskey is a global bestseller, the 109 distilleries produce over 500 million liters a year.
REUTERS
passers in Edinburgh: 15 million tourists
Another growth area is the Tourism . Around 15 million visitors a year in the far north, 2.5 million of them from abroad. The Scottish Government intends to significantly screw these numbers with stronger promotion and advertising upwards.
Pride is one in Edinburgh on the leading role in the renewable energy . In the Moray Firth Inverness just before resulted in the third largest offshore wind farm in the world. Even now refers Scotland 29.8 percent of its electricity from alternative sources.
A lively Tech Scene could show the new country. The computer-Faculty of the University of Edinburgh enjoys a good international reputation and has already spawned numerous start-ups.
Scots would have internationally active are
worry on the other hand, the few remaining shipyards. On defense contracts from London they would have to do without comfortable when Scotland is independent. The British government can not build their warships abroad.
To be successful in the long term, the Scottish company should urgently develop new markets. Last year, exports were worth 47.6 billion pounds to the UK. Exports to the rest of the world amounted to only 26 billion pounds. The Scots would be most active.
The Scottish government has promised a more active economic and foreign trade policy. Among other things she wants to attract foreign companies with low tax rates. As Ireland wants its big neighbor Britain abjagen investors.
Whether that works, also depends on the budget situation. First, the government will have to save adamant to convince investors in the financial markets of their budgetary discipline. The Scottish deficit is rising at 8.3 percent, and the trend. Plenty of room for tax cuts is not there. In the long term, the pressure on the budget remains large: the declining oil revenues is offset by an aging society that is becoming increasingly expensive for the state. The Scottish population is older than the English and grows much slower.
Easy it is not, therefore, for the Scottish Government. But Prime Minister Alex Salmond is right: Most countries had a much worse starting position than they were independently
.
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